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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."